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 E-mail article  Print  Save Additional News in English Još vesti na Srpskom Επιπλέον ειδήσεις στα Ελληνικά  Text

Through to 2014, the value of the Serbian pharmaceutical expenditure is forecasedt to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.44% in local currency terms

Michael Roberts - 19.03.2010

According to comments made by the country’s Minister of Health in November 2009, the value of Serbia’s pharmaceutical market is now five times that of 2002. We estimate that - at consumer prices - the market was worth around RSD73.02bn (US$1.08bn) in 2009, despite having posted a lower annual growth rate for the year than previously, as a result of recessionary pressures. Through to 2014, the value of the Serbian pharmaceutical expenditure is forecast to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.44% in local currency terms, to top RSD99.77bn (US$1.63bn), which is still modest in comparison to more developed markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. 

While the market is small in terms of absolute numbers, relative per-capita spending on medicines is on the rise, gradually edging towards the levels observed in more developed CEE markets. Nevertheless, major obstacles to foreign investment include not only the poor state of the country’s infrastructure, but also outstanding issues regarding the black-market economy, corruption, political instability, inflation and cumbersome bureaucracy, among others. In fact, in the World Bank’s 2010 index of ‘ease of doing business’, Serbia ranks 88th of the 183 countries covered, trailing developing states such as Albania (82nd) and Montenegro (71st) and illustrating that much needs to be improved. 

Therefore, as economic recovery boosts the investment potential of other countries in the Emerging Europe region, our Business Environment Ratings (BER) table for Q210 sees Serbia continuing to slip down the matrix. The country now ranks 13th of the 20 key markets surveyed in the region, having already fallen from ninth to 12th place in the previous quarter. While key selling points of the Serbian market include its advantageous geographical position, a largely untapped pharmaceutical market and the low-cost supply of skilled labour, the issues outlined above will conspire to keep the country’s rating low in the regional matrix. 

Nevertheless, as multinationals need to continue to expand beyond their key - yet stagnating - developed markets, Serbia will continue to be the subject of some foreign interest. Additionally, as of the start of February 2010, a transitional commercial agreement between Serbia and the European Union (EU) is in place, which should further stimulate its appeal to foreign investors. In fact, in November 2009, US-based drugmaker Eli Lilly reported that it plans to increase its local presence by opening an office there. Lilly, which already has a number of subsidiaries in the region - including those in Croatia, Romania, Russia, and Turkey - has given no specific timeline for the move other than ‘soon’. Currently, the company’s operations in Serbia are limited to working with local partners, offering only a limited range of products.

Research and Markets

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